By Bob Van Leer

  (JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA, June 5, 1986) - In a whirlwind tour today lasting from 8 a.m. to midnight we did some sightseeing in the South African countryside and listened to five speakers in four sessions in Johannesburg and Pretoria. Pretoria is the administrative capital of South Africa, about 20 miles from Johannesburg.

    A theme came through from all the speakers; the political situation cannot go on in South Africa the way it is. And all hope for dramatic action by the government before the end of the year to forestall disaster. Economically, South Africa is getting to be a basket case. Factoring in the l8.5 percent inflation, there is negative economic growth.

  The South African money unit, the Rand, was worth $1.35 U. S. as little as five years ago. Two years ago it was $0.80. When we bought a small amount from First Interstate Bank before coming here we paid $0.44. Today the Rand fell to $0.39. At the rate it is falling now, the Rand will be worthless in a couple of months.

  Our five speakers all expressed a hope that somehow this will be worked out and disaster will be kept away from the door. The government has made a number of concessions to racial equality and all believe this has to be only a beginning. But to some the possibility of awful things loom just over the horizon.

  One speaker, Professor Andre Thomashausen, of the University of South Africa, painted a gloomy scenario, saying that if the present trends continue the government will lose its effectiveness and the right wing could take over. If this happens you can have, "One of the extraordinary blood baths of the 20th century."

Appearance Calm
  This kind of talk seems incredible in a country whose outside appearance is a calm, well-ordered society. Only an occasional armed soldier-guard bears witness to the underlying turmoil. Our speakers pointed out that a great many changes have been made in government policies in the recent past including the 1984 constitution creating three houses in the legislative body, one for whites, another for Colored and a third for Indians and Asians. But the white assembly still retains control.

  Thomashausen said the multi-racial government has gotten South Africans used to the idea that white supremacy is over. Reservations of jobs for whites had been dropped, labor unions are permitted. Laws against mixed marriages have been dropped and school integration has been started out at the university level. Reservation of and by race is a concept that is going, according to our speakers.

  But an attempt to have blacks participate in local government has been a "total failure". Black resistance groups refused to participate and took action against any who did. Thomashausen said that 580 black councilors were killed in the first month by "necklacing", a procedure of putting a gasoline-soaked tire around the victim's neck and setting it afire.
Pass System Scrapped

  The Pass System has been scrapped, allowing freedom of movement for blacks. Thomashausen hopes for dramatic moves by the end of the year to enable western leaders to take the pressure off South Africa. He said the majority of whites realizes the present situation must change. A factor talked about by all is "sanctions", restrictions of trade with South Africa. These have hurt; and those proposed would hurt even more.

  The United States has instituted a number of sanctions and a bill now in Congress to tighten up these, including curtailing investments and bank loans and denying landing rights to South African Airways in New York. The last one appears to me to be counterproductive. It involves only four flights a week from New York (these are the only South African flights to the U. S.). More communication between the two countries is needed rather than less. A tour such as we are on now would be much more difficult to arrange without the South African flights.

  Deon duPlessis, deputy editor of the Pretoria News, said he feels there is still hope and thinks that before the end of the year there will be a fourth house in the legislature for blacks that will be a beginning. He envisions "grey areas" not black and white, but with a few areas still reserved for whites. He emphasizes that minority rule can't continue.

  Back at Johannesburg, two speakers commented on a background only basis about the Sullivan Principles subscribed to by a large number of U. S. businesses operating in South Africa. This is a code drawn up by an American black, the Rev. Leon Sullivan, outlining principles for the U. S. companies operating in South Africa. These include desegregating the workplace, with equal pay, and assisting in economic health for blacks. We were told that only about 70,000 persons work directly for the American companies, creating just one percent of South African activity, but about a million people are dependent on the American jobs. And the American companies are a "catalyst", setting a model for other companies to follow to compete for the best labor.

Disinvestment Could Harm
  We have heard from two black speakers, one an editor and the other a banker. Both are part of an emerging black middle class and both feel that American disinvestment could cause more harm to blacks than any good it could do. One commented that the government has to come to grips with change sooner rather than later, but disinvestment is no solution.

  They suggested positive programs to aid South African blacks, such as business education, rather than negatives such as disinvestment that would hurt blacks as well as the intended target. Sanctions did aid in getting the government moving but at some point they become counterproductive.

  M. R. Christie, general manager of the South Africa Foundation, which coordinated our tour, said the foundation was formed 26 years ago after the Sharpville shootings with the purpose of objective communication. He said that the issue has a momentum of its own and the debate is often not in touch with the reality of what is happening. He said that to isolate South Africa is counter productive and ultimately economic sanctions will be ruinous to South Africa. He pointed out that South Africa has a small economy: the U. S. produces as much wealth in five days.

  Population is growing at 2.5 percent per year, especially black population, and the economy is growing at one percent per year, so the standard of living is going down. The standard of living for blacks in South Africa is the highest in Africa, but the blacks compare themselves with whites, not blacks in other countries, and the system is not working for them. A six to eight percent growth rate is needed to meet the rising expectation of blacks and there is no hope of South Africa achieving this on its own.

  He appealed for assistance rather than trying to break the South African economy. He said that Southern Africa (including South Africa with 30 million people) has a population of 100 million and the only hope of improving the standard of living of the region is to assist the South African economy, on which all others are based. He said, "You are toying with the future of a hundred million people for the sheer satisfaction of punishing 4.5 million whites," and said you are trying to break the South African economy.

  Christie said that if you are going to persuade Pres. Botha to negotiate you are going to have to reward him for that. Christie also said this government has the ability to rule this country by power for the next 10 years at least.

Visit Monument
  On a lighter subject, in the morning we took a tour of the countryside in the 58 kilometers between Johannesburg and Pretoria and visited the enormous Voortrekker monument erected to commemorate the Dutch pioneers who moved away from Cape Town in the 1830s to get away from English rule in a movement vaguely similar to the Oregon Trail. The Voortrekkers (forward travelers) survived great privations and battles with the natives before establishing a new country, the Transvaal, which was eventually conquered by the British in the Boer War around the turn of the 20th century.

  The experiences left an indelible mark on the Afrikaners (whites of mainly Dutch and French ancestry), that colors their thinking to this day. The Afrikaners gained control of the South African government in 1948 and the influence of the English, the other white group, has been negligible since. Tomorrow we will spend a day in further touring of Johannesburg and leave in the afternoon by air for Cape Town - 1432 kilometers away, for the next segment of our tour.