By Bob Van Leer

  (GOLD BEACH, OREGON, July 2, 1986) - Near the end of our stay in South Africa I asked our group of 15 traveling newspaper people, "Do any of you see a happy ending to this?" Nobody replied. And that about sums up South Africa today.

  We found general agreement among whites and blacks that things can't go on the way they are. But when you asked, "What do you see in five years, 10 years down the line?", the answers became quite vague. It is a rich, beautiful country on a collision course with disaster. The problems look a lot simpler from here than they do from there. Two remedies are most often suggested in the U.S. to influence the South African situation, "disinvestment", or selling off stock in companies that do business in or with South Africa, and "sanctions" which are direct government actions against the country.

  Disinvestment is now irrelevant. It had an influence earlier but events have passed it by. Foreign businesses in South Africa are looking for a way out. The economy is in a slump and with the existing domestic turmoil and international sanctions South Africa is not a good place to do business now or in the foreseeable future.

  In these circumstance business votes with its feet. Unfortunately, many of those most directly affected by this are Blacks. U. S. businesses mainly abide by the "Sullivan Code" of non-discrimination on the job and Blacks working for U. S. companies have some of the best jobs for blacks in the country. We talked to some of them and they were not at all in favor of economic punishment of the country.

  More Blacks than I would have thought are against economic sanctions. Chief Buthelezi of the Zulus is opposed. His rationale is that he expects to have a say in whatever system emerges and doesn't want to inherit a ruined economy. And he heads the largest single ethnic group in South Africa. There are 6 million Zulus in a country of 30 million people.

  Some blacks, such as Bishop Tutu and especially the African National Congress (ANC), the outlawed anti-government group, do favor sanctions. Oliver Tambo, the ANC head, from exile in Zambia presses for sanctions. But this is the classic case of the general ready to fight to the last private. I'd be against direct government sanctions because of the misery they will cause to a people who are suffering enough already. But this may be like a Greek tragedy and every steps needs to be played out to the end.

  The U. S. does not have all that much leverage in South Africa and once sanctions are applied we have nothing left to bargain with. But whatever the U S. does probably doesn't matter much anyway. The South African government in intransigent. The government is dismantling much of the legal framework of "apartheid", the separation of races, and feels wounded because it is not getting credit for this.

  The government ministers don't' seem to understand that they can't expect much applause for stopping doing something they shouldn't have done in the first place. But we were told flatly that the government is not interested in negotiating on a "one man-one vote" basis. And an equal voting at this time probably would not work, given the level of education (or lack of it) for a lot of the population. But the government has no mechanism for bringing anyone other than whites into real political control.

  This "stone-walling" is not a viable position. The government can keep in control by force of arms for some time. But control is visibly slipping. A State of Emergency has been declared which would not have been necessary if the government weren't losing control. The black townships, residental areas, are in a state of near anarchy with daily killings. Many of these are by "necklacing", putting a gasoline-soaked tire around someone's neck and setting it afire. The violence is beginning to spill over into white areas with a number of bombings in cities. One especially destructive bomb was set off in Durban just a few doors down the street from the hotel where we were staying. We were not there at the time; we had left a few hours earlier. Still, this is getting a little close to home.

  The government says that if it goes down South Africa will become a Communist-dominated state. And they're probably right; all the neighboring states are. A fragmentation of the country would be entirely possible. There are on the order of a dozen Black tribes, two white tribes (Afrikaners and English), Coloreds or mixed race, and Indians.

  When the white policeman loses his authority there are going to be a lot of old scores to settle. At some point the realities of the situation may convince the government that it has to accommodate. Pressure from South African businesses may do this. Someone may devise a relatively peaceful solution to the South African situation yet, but the time is getting very short.